SNOWPACK UPDATE
Snowpack is critical not only because it gives an indication of snowfall and ski conditions, but even more so because it is the primary source of our water supply, not only in the Vail Valley, but for the entire southwest USA. As of January 31st, Colorado snowpack is at 87% of normal, which to us is surprising given the lack of snow we have had. However, the overall Colorado snowpack figure is somewhat skewed by Southwestern Colorado where snowpack is at 110% of normal, mostly due to some of the mega-storms that hit Southern California and Arizona hitting southwestern Colorado very hard and dumping more then 8 feet of snow.
WILL THEY CLOSE?
As the Solaris, Vail Ritz Carlton Residences and Four Seasons projects are all coming down the home stretch and all appear to be on track for completion in the 3rd or 4th quarter of 2010, it begs the question….will they close? Of course, “they” are the buyers who have been under-contract to purchase units in these projects. Typically, when projects get to this stage of completion, developers primary concern is getting unsold units under contract. However in these uncertain times developers have to be thinking about how to close the contracts they have on the books. Virtually all of them were contracted for prior to the economic meltdown. Each of these projects have to have financial concerns about the number of units sold thus far; the state of the economy; and the prospect of selling remaining inventory in this troubled real estate market. We believe that the Ritz Carlton Vail is probably the most secure project for several reasons. The developers, Vail Resorts, have deep pockets; the project was the most reasonably priced of the three and continues to be reasonably priced (units start at around $960/foot and most are priced under $1500 per foot); the projected maintenance fees are not over-the-top; and the Ritz Carlton brand.
The financial fate of the Four Seasons is no mystery as the project has already been taken over by the lender. However, the lenders are saddled with some major issues – the units are overpriced, currently asking over $2,000/foot, and the maintenance fees are very high at over $2 per foot per month. For example, maintenance fees for a 1623 square-foot 1-bedroom unit are projected to be $3278 per month!
From the surface it would appear that the developer of Solaris is not in the least bit concerned about the situation. Since all hell broke lose in our economy, they have actually raised their prices several times. Most units at the Solaris are priced well over $2,000 per foot and several are over $3,000 per foot and there has been no backing down. In addition, Solaris is offering 33% lower commissions to selling real estate brokers and if you do not believe that this makes a difference to real estate agents, well, you probably do not know many real estate agents. We understand that Solaris has a block of units under-contract to a vacation club. If for any reason this vacation club does not close, it could spell trouble for this project.
Where do we see the market for these projects going? First, we have too much high-end inventory in which the units are too big and the prices are too high. We sincerely hope that Vail Resorts in developing EverVail and the Town of Vail during the approval process takes this issue into consideration. The last thing Vail needs right now is more high-end inventory and the prospect of more unsold units. Second, prices will come down. – Barclay’s Bank will surely see to that on the Four Seasons project. Barclay’s will not sit on their hands and ultimately will do what it takes to sell these units and take their losses. Third, exorbitant maintenance fees could mean long-term issues for the Four Seasons and Solaris. Even very affluent buyers are shaking their heads at the numbers. In our mind, everything points to the Ritz Carlton weathering the storm and other projects facing a more difficult road ahead.
FEBRUARY 2010
V-P VISITS BEAVER CREEK – BIG HASSLES, BIG PRICE TAG
While it is hard not to remember the publicity and benefit the former President Gerald Ford brought to Vail and Beaver Creek, in these troubled days it is a bit more difficult to get excited about the Vice President of the United States taking a vacation in Beaver Creek. In fact, the overall feedback from the VP visiting Beaver Creek has been more negative (which is not surprising given the Republican tendencies of most Beaver Creek residents) as it seems that the VP does not know how to travel “light” and his movements in and around Beaver Creek only caused chaos. To quote the Vail Mountaineer, “Biden and his immeasurable entourage: arrived in Eagle County Airport on a military transport plane plus two smaller twin-engine planes. Funny how politicians made such a huge deal last year when auto executives flew to Washington on private jets, yet not much restraint on their part despite the massive budget deficits. Three private planes?
For VP Biden’s departure, Eagle County Airport was closed for several hours and no private planes were allowed to land or depart and commercial traffic had to be rescheduled. While in town, there were numerous inconveniences to Beaver Creek residents and visitors as vehicles were searched and lift lines were blocked off. However, the Vice-President did find time to mingle with kids in the Snowboard Outreach Society (SOS) and everyone who met the Vice-President said that he could not have been nicer.
LOCAL SKIING LEGEND, JIMMY HUEGA, PASSES AWAY.
The Vail Valley lost one of its most influential residents as Jimmie Huega passed away at age 66. Huega, who along with Billy Kidd in 1964, were the first American men to win Olympic medals in alpine skiing as Kidd won silver and Huega bronze in the slalom in Innsbrook, Austria. Despite his fame in skiing, Jimmie Huega’s real acclaim went beyond skiing after he was diagnosed with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) at age 26. He then dedicated his life to research and innovative treatment of the disease.
Over the years, we saw Jimmie in Vail many times at the Huega Express, social events, or around town as a regular Dad (our sons were classmates and ski buddies). Some days for Jimmie were tougher then others as this fickle disease presented a daily challenge to everyday life. However, Jimmie never complained, was always friendly and continued to push on and serve his cause.
At age 15, Huega was named to the U.S. Ski Team and to this day remains the youngest man ever on its roster. Upon hearing of his death, Bob Beattie, another U.S. ski legend, rightfully so referred to Huega “as the toughest guy, both on and off skis, both mentally and physically, that I’ve ever known. Despite his premature death, Jimmie Huega legacy of skiing, determination and inspiration will live on well beyond the lifespan of even the healthiest of men.
BECOME A FAN OF VAIL REALTY ON FACEBOOK
Do you Facebook? If so, become a “fan” of Vail Realty for live updates, airline specials, ski reports, lodging specials, etc. It’s easy. Simply search for “Vail Realty” on your Facebook page and become a fan. In addition, the more fans we add helps us market your property by exploiting Facebook’s network. If you need assistance, contact Lee Williams at lee@vailrealty.com.
OTHER NEWS HEADLINES:
Local Pro-Snowboarder, Clair Bidez, Featured in Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue
New Owners Take Charge of the Vail Plaza Hotel
Hell Freezes Over – The Saints Won the Super Bowl!
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